Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 221.777470 271.144395 332.872404 417.241879 532.012605 6.864938e+02 9.170831e+02
2025-05-25 160.549686 214.291536 290.223071 410.023829 603.942993 9.253691e+02 1.549610e+03
2025-06-01 126.533682 178.690649 258.579871 397.921566 654.737007 1.158670e+03 2.401260e+03
2025-06-08 104.654427 153.932287 234.032132 384.895610 693.603242 1.394233e+03 3.564639e+03
2025-06-15 97.066347 149.122462 239.392513 424.817792 854.360539 2.027588e+03 7.072229e+03
2025-06-22 86.532745 137.013349 228.634636 429.117608 939.694918 2.563210e+03 1.207214e+04
2025-06-29 79.367622 129.296455 223.951923 444.349078 1062.808064 3.385677e+03 2.355436e+04
2025-07-06 71.623624 119.158444 212.255914 439.578148 1128.540276 4.108584e+03 4.250535e+04
2025-07-13 69.143873 118.425937 219.444675 483.538692 1381.716563 6.263695e+03 1.488905e+05
2025-07-20 66.364172 116.601977 223.838491 522.269037 1656.025735 9.508734e+03 8.670678e+05
2025-07-27 63.196233 113.472284 224.600868 551.421400 1926.821882 1.414066e+04 2.118169e+07
2025-08-03 59.792500 109.341544 222.163802 570.305035 2177.992984 2.051521e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 55.837336 103.725826 215.610817 575.855596 2387.557301 2.906406e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 51.601243 96.989474 205.109341 564.750523 2499.635399 3.810287e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 47.589660 90.287521 193.585600 546.354522 2553.589352 4.774394e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 44.010351 84.167434 182.623448 526.656124 2584.313855 5.886384e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 43.622401 85.304965 191.402594 587.294534 3335.393405 1.532083e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 41.453743 82.000292 187.237848 593.873848 3661.429424 2.751430e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 39.954334 80.124756 186.857569 617.254205 4226.459558 6.990625e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 37.766350 76.340265 180.239691 609.918502 4454.534359 1.370976e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 37.551544 77.403388 188.443192 677.927409 5881.785406 3.191463e+07 NaN
2025-10-12 37.039616 77.654605 194.236692 738.596840 7576.309015 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 36.195660 76.949872 196.850535 784.710045 9373.147212 NaN NaN